В 2002-м известные экономисты - Джозеф Стиглиц (нобелевский лауреат), Джонатан Орзаг и Питер Орзаг - провели финансовый анализ устойчивости фирм Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac:
This analysis shows that, based on historical data, the probability of a shock as severe as embodied in the risk-based capital standard is substantially less than one in 500,000 – and may be smaller than one in three million.
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For example, if the probability of the stress test conditions occurring is less than one in 500,000, and if the GSEs hold sufficient capital to withstand the stress test, the implication is that the expected cost to the government of providing an explicit government guarantee on $1 trillion in GSE debt is just $2 million.
Сейчас, как мы знаем, Фанни & Фредди фактически национализированы и в них вкачаны сотни миллиардов, а Питер Орзаг заведует американским бюджетом.
This analysis shows that, based on historical data, the probability of a shock as severe as embodied in the risk-based capital standard is substantially less than one in 500,000 – and may be smaller than one in three million.
/.../
For example, if the probability of the stress test conditions occurring is less than one in 500,000, and if the GSEs hold sufficient capital to withstand the stress test, the implication is that the expected cost to the government of providing an explicit government guarantee on $1 trillion in GSE debt is just $2 million.
Сейчас, как мы знаем, Фанни & Фредди фактически национализированы и в них вкачаны сотни миллиардов, а Питер Орзаг заведует американским бюджетом.