These are two different kinds of impact. Given the current mess, some hit to the economy is inevitable - investments are misallocated, and they have to be reallocated and readjusted. The question is do we take the pill now and start working out of the mess, or do we ignore the situation, inflate the debts further and be forced to take much bigger pill a bit later.
I don't think they intend to ignore the situation. On the contrary, if they did vote in anything Paulson&Pelosi hastily concocted w/o regard for their constituents'opinion, I would say -they just want to sweep it under the carpet, delige is after us, etc etc. They can't ignore the situation now; the market is crushing - and those voters with money in the bank, any bank (and that's about 85% of population) wouldn't let them.
I think danger is not ignoring - danger is trying to fix it by printing more money, and that's what Paulson tries to do, and Dems happy to oblige provided they can get their cut - fit in some political play like CEO pay limits for all the industry or ACORN funding or crap like this. So now it would be interesting what would be the next proposal after the original "give us money now, ask questions later" didn't work.
My company will not fail. If it will, I'm not worried - I'll always find another place. If I won't, I'm not worried - I'll just have nothing to eat for a while. Blah.
I'm just trying to understand where does your confidence come from and how far does it reach. And whether you really have some grounds for optimism. Maybe I want to share your optimism. I guess you are just anticipating the fun of watching people throw tantrums?
If we're talking about tantrums, I think the position "I can feed myself" is better than "I am doomed, nothing but 700 billion from the government given to some large banks is going to save me now!" - the latter is much closer to tantrum than the former.
My optimism comes from my life experience: I am used to depend on myself, not on Big Brother to save me.
It helps to acquire few professions along the way, not just one. It also helps to invest in one's own health (note: not health insurance, although that is important, too - but health. In other words: don't smoke, exercise regularly, drink juice before breakfast etc).
you will need something more then that. obviously i can feed myself too. this is not the point
if you only need to feed yourself, be my guest. some other people usually want to live their lives which mean something more then just feeding and having juice for breakfast.
let me put it in this way. there were lots of nice looking guys who could swim well onboard of titanic. it did not really help them, did it?
No, it did not. However, if you are on the Titanic, you have two choices - start putting the boats on the water and start rowing (and risk that not everybody would get to the boats, etc.) or tell the orchestra to play louder and the machine to up the steam and hope that somehow you'll get to America even with this huge hole in the hull, you just need it to go a little faster, and then if you get some water onboard you could get it out later, in America. The Congress, to my surprise, chose the boats. You propose to choose the orchestra and "we'll deal with the water later, let's get to America first". It wouldn't work.
About those houses: if loosing one's job will result in loosing the house, that idiot should not buy the house in the first place. In any case, what's wrong with renting? I do, and it feels great.
You have banks failing and people losing jobs and houses anyway, this is how the market works. You can either try to make it easier by going with it or make it harder by trying to go against it and then falling from the higher point of mis-investment and unrealistic prices. Higher you go, more it hurts to fall.
"Failing market" is what people that failed call the working market. Market is not something that everybody (or anybody) is promised to win, or that has to arrive to some pre-defined resolution that one favors. It's a law of human behavior, and it has no feelings or regard to how one would want it to work. You can postpone the market correction by printing more paper and drawing more meaningless numbers into "asset price" column and think this stuff is real - but when the inevitable correction comes, you'd just get bigger difference between what you thought you have, based on the numbers you imagined to feel better, and what you really have. Right now the financial sector is in the deep shit, because of massive government-initiated misinvestment. It can either take the hit, accept the stock price drop and get to work to get back on the feet, or try to pretend this misinvestment wasn't really one and the stock shouldn't drop. It wouldn't work, not for long.
the quake will damage everything and i am wondering whether it is blindness or just ignorance not to see it coming...
It's not a "quake". It's not some natural phenomenon that we have no knowledge why it happens or how to predict. We saw it coming, we know what has to be done and we postponed it numerous times because what has to be done hurts. More we postpone it, more it will hurt. Five years a go it would hurt a bit (some people wouldn't be able to buy homes they can't afford, some would not get huge profits from selling them, some bank managers would get a million-two less in bonuses), right now it hurts a lot, couple of years later it would hurt a REAL lot, and another couple of years later it could just end up with debt that is not serviceable in any way, and that wouldn't be some bank's debt - that would be US government's debt. And then it would _really_ suck.
The market was (still is, although it's frozen at the moment) distorted by socialistic policies that Congress implemented. Naturally, if normal competition, based on merit isn't available, the companies would invest in paying corrupted politicians (read - Democrats); google "crony capitalism", or "corporatism", then compare it to "free market".
Until those policies aren't cancelled, every attempt to put a bandaid on a siphilitic leison will result in failure, each consecutive more spectacular and painful than the previous one.
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I'm very encouraged with the results.
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They can't ignore the situation now; the market is crushing - and those voters with money in the bank, any bank (and that's about 85% of population) wouldn't let them.
Interesting times.
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So now it would be interesting what would be the next proposal after the original "give us money now, ask questions later" didn't work.
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it is time to get some encouragement. sure.
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Don't worry, you'll find some other job.
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My company will not fail. If it will, I'm not worried - I'll always find another place. If I won't, I'm not worried - I'll just have nothing to eat for a while.
Blah.
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You can go throw tantrums all you want; I'll sit tight and laugh at you.
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I guess you are just anticipating the fun of watching people throw tantrums?
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It helps to acquire few professions along the way, not just one. It also helps to invest in one's own health (note: not health insurance, although that is important, too - but health. In other words: don't smoke, exercise regularly, drink juice before breakfast etc).
I adapt.
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I will keep it up - you, obviously, won't. So, when is the spectacle of you jumping off the bridge is scheduled? I'll buy the popcorn.
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if you only need to feed yourself, be my guest. some other people usually want to live their lives which mean something more then just feeding and having juice for breakfast.
let me put it in this way. there were lots of nice looking guys who could swim well onboard of titanic. it did not really help them, did it?
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In any case, what's wrong with renting?
I do, and it feels great.
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there is a small difference between working market and a failing market.
banks can be damaged by its own investment policy or they can be ruined by liquidity problem brought from outside failure.
the idea of the bail out is to fix the liquidity, not to save the bad players.
the quake will damage everything and i am wondering whether it is blindness or just ignorance not to see it coming...
Причем
Re: Причем
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Market is not something that everybody (or anybody) is promised to win, or that has to arrive to some pre-defined resolution that one favors. It's a law of human behavior, and it has no feelings or regard to how one would want it to work. You can postpone the market correction by printing more paper and drawing more meaningless numbers into "asset price" column and think this stuff is real - but when the inevitable correction comes, you'd just get bigger difference between what you thought you have, based on the numbers you imagined to feel better, and what you really have.
Right now the financial sector is in the deep shit, because of massive government-initiated misinvestment. It can either take the hit, accept the stock price drop and get to work to get back on the feet, or try to pretend this misinvestment wasn't really one and the stock shouldn't drop. It wouldn't work, not for long.
the quake will damage everything and i am wondering whether it is blindness or just ignorance not to see it coming...
It's not a "quake". It's not some natural phenomenon that we have no knowledge why it happens or how to predict. We saw it coming, we know what has to be done and we postponed it numerous times because what has to be done hurts. More we postpone it, more it will hurt. Five years a go it would hurt a bit (some people wouldn't be able to buy homes they can't afford, some would not get huge profits from selling them, some bank managers would get a million-two less in bonuses), right now it hurts a lot, couple of years later it would hurt a REAL lot, and another couple of years later it could just end up with debt that is not serviceable in any way, and that wouldn't be some bank's debt - that would be US government's debt. And then it would _really_ suck.
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Until those policies aren't cancelled, every attempt to put a bandaid on a siphilitic leison will result in failure, each consecutive more spectacular and painful than the previous one.
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And eat a lot of junk food.